August - retreaters
The distribution of species is determined by prevailing conditions and with a changing climate, ‘suitable climate space’ for many species will, at best, move northwards or upwards to higher altitudes, and at worst reduce dramatically in area or disappear from Scotland altogether.
The species most at risk are those with nowhere to go as the climate warms. Scotland supports a number of species such as the rare Norwegian mugwort and cloudberry that are restricted to the high tops of the mountains. As the climate warms and other species are better able to survive at these altitudes they are likely to outcompete these species, which will be lost.
Even where potentially suitable climate space may be available or created, the biggest difficulty for most species will be keeping pace with changing conditions. Many plants have only limited powers of dispersal, leaving them vulnerable to the increasing rate of change. Even the more mobile animals are not immune to the pressures of shrinking climate space. Based on projections for future climate conditions, a number of species of bird are likely to be lost from Scotland. These include the snow bunting, the Scottish crossbill, and the great and arctic skuas. The range and consequently the long-term viability of other species will also be compromised.
Similar changes might also be expected in the marine environment, and a few northern species such as dabberlocks, a large brown seaweed, and the tortoiseshell limpet are already showing small retractions from their southernmost limits northwards.
