Climate Change Secondary

Predicting and climate modelling

Scotland satellite photograph

The high levels of greenhouse gases we have put into the atmosphere are having a measurable effect on the world’s climate, sea level, ice cover and living things. The effects of anthropogenic climate change have become increasingly evident over the last few decades.

The greatest challenge in understanding climate change comes in answering the simple-looking question, ‘what happens next?’

Because of the complexity of the world’s climatic and geophysical systems, this is a very difficult question to answer but there is now a high degree of agreement about what is likely to happen (although these have to be expressed in ranges and probabilities).

There are a number of climate models, each with different ways of working and assumptions, run by research groups around the world. These are used to predict the results of a range of scenarios, ranging from what might happen if we cut greenhouse gas emissions to pre-industrial revolution levels, to what will result from carrying on as if there isn’t a problem.

These models show high degrees of agreement and form the basis of the advice given to the United Nations by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).

Even when the question ‘what happens next?’ has been answered as best we can, we have to work out how the changes will affect us, our farming, our economies and our societies. How much change can a country absorb - could the UK survive the loss of large parts of some of our major cities? How will increasing drought in eastern parts of the UK effect us?  Moving to a global scale, what will be the effects of loss of land in Bangladesh, or extensive drought in Africa?

Based on the answers to these questions, Scotland, the UK and the other countries of the world must decide how they will respond to climate change.

The Scottish Climate Change Impacts Partnership (SCCIP) website offers access to current data on climate trends and their impacts in Scotland, along with regular updates on the latest Scottish climate change research and projects.

Online Handbook of Climate Trends Across Scotland - The climate trends examined in this handbook provide benchmarks against which we can measure future change and will be of value to users across a wide range of sectors and disciplines that are developing strategies to prepare for adapt to the impacts of a changing climate in Scotland. This research was conducted by the Scotland & Northern Ireland Forum for Environmental Research (SNIFFER).

Expected impacts in Scotland by the 2080s

  • Annual temperatures averaged across Scotland will rise by up to 3.5 ˚C in the summer and 2.5 ˚C in the winter.
  • Summers will become generally drier across Scotland.
  • There may only be a slight reduction in rainfall in the north-west but as much as a 40% reduction in the south and east.
  • Scotland’s growing season will become longer, by between 30 and 80 days.
  • Scotland’s sea levels will rise, perhaps by up to 600mm around the mainland.
  • Average snowfall amounts will decrease, perhaps by up to 90% less depending on location, and snowless winters may become normal in some parts. Winters will become wetter. 
  • Scotland will have more severe extreme rainfall events, with rainfall in 24 hours from storms expected to occur on average every two years up by 25%, especially in the east.

Source: The UK Climate Impacts Programme Scenarios 2002

 

Satellite photograph provided by the SeaWiFS Project, NASA/Goddard Space Flight Center and GeoEye

This image cannot be re-used without permission from GeoEye.